The poll strategists of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) found themselves stumped as results of the Assembly polls poured in on Tuesday.
The reason: Despite winning 29 Assembly seats, the highest ever tally, the BJP is left with no other option but to occupy the Opposition benches in the Union Territory.
Interestingly, the BJP bagged the highest 25.64 percentage of votes in Jammu and Kashmir but lagged National Conference by a staggering 13 seats. The NC cornered 42 seats polling 2.21 percent votes less than the BJP.
Had BJP won a handful of ST seats from the twin border districts of Rajouri and Poonch, it would have come closer to the halfway mark of forming the Government with the help of independent candidates and the backing of five nominated members with voting rights. The social engineering attempted by the BJP by way of granting Scheduled Tribe status to the Pahari population in the region did not enhance the winnability quotient of its party candidates in the fray.
As things stand, six out of nine seats, reserved for the ST candidates (which is 10 percent of total Assembly seats), were won by the National Conference while one seat was bagged by its ally Congress in Rajouri. Independents won two seats. Out of these nine seats, six are located across the Jammu region and three in Kashmir valley.
By granting ST status to the Paharis, the BJP aimed to consolidate its voter base across the Pir Panjal region and exploit the existing fault lines between the Gujjar-Bakerwals and Pahari-speaking population. The Pahari tribe constitutes of Muslims, Hindus and Sikhs living in hilly areas of Jammu and Kashmir.
In Rajouri, the biggest defeat was handed over to the BJP candidate Choudhary Zulfikar Ali contesting from the Budhal Assembly segment. He was defeated by a huge margin of over 18,000 votes by Javaid Iqbal Ahmad Choudhary, a close relative aligned with the National Conference. Before taking the plunge into electoral politics, Choudhary served as the chairperson of the Block Development Council of Koteranka (Budhal).
Post-delimitation, the Pir Panjal region has two Hindu-majority seats – Nowhsera and Sunderbani-Kalakote – and the population of Hindus and Muslims is almost equal in Rajouri. While Rajouri district has 34.54% Hindu population, Poonch has 6.84% Hindu population.
Former National Conference leader Muzaffar Iqbal Khan, an Independent candidate from Thannamandi, defeated BJP candidate Mohd Iqbal Malik by a margin of over 6,000 votes. For his part, Congress candidate from Rajouri Iftkar Ahmad defeated BJP candidate Vibodh Kumar by a margin of 1,404 votes.
Choudhary Mohd Akram, an Independent candidate from Surankote, defeated Choudhary Shahnawaz Hussain of the Congress by a margin of over 8,000 votes while deceased BJP candidate Syed Mushtaq Bukhari stood third.
Another National Conference candidate from Mendhar reserved seat, Javed Ahmed Rana, defeated Murtaza Ahmed Khan of BJP by a margin of over 14,000 votes. Murtaza, who remained PDP MLC, had recently joined the BJP in the presence of Home Minister Amit Shah.
National Conference candidate from Gulabgarh in Reasi defeated former Minister Aihaz Ahmad Khan, who contested as Independent candidate, by a margin of over 6,000 votes. The BJP candidate stood third in the tally.
In Kokernag, Zafar Ali Khatana of JKNC defeated Haroon Rashid Khatana of JKPDP by a margin of 6,162 votes while the BJP candidate Roshan Hussain Khan Gojar stood fifth in the tally.
The BJP attached great importance to Paharis, who are a majority in seven out of eight segments of the Pir Panjal region. Due to their sizeable population in the erstwhile Doda district, the BJP also aimed at reaping benefits by granting ST status to the Paddaris too.
The Kangan Assembly constituency in Kashmir valley saw another son rise in the poll arena. Here Miyan Mehar Ali, son of JKNC MP, Mian Altaf Ahmad, defeated the JKPDP candidate Syed Jamat Ali Shah by a margin of over 3,000 votes.
In Gurez, National Conference candidate, Nazir Ahmad Khan defeated the nearest BJP rival Faqeer Mohd Khan by a margin of little over 1,100 votes.
