Whom Will The Tribals Vote For In November?

New Delhi

Between November 7 and November 30, Assembly elections will be held in Mizoram, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. And the results will be announced on December 3.

NUMBERWISE

• The five States together account for a total of 679 Assembly seats
• The 679 seats make up for 1/6^th of the country’s total number of Assembly seats
• Nearly 16 crore voters (8.2 cr male, 7.2 cr female) would be eligible to cast their votes, which is again 1/6^th of the country’s total electorate
• Of the 679 Assembly seats, 152 seats are reserved for Scheduled Tribes (ST). Indirectly they have a sway over around 300 seats
• In percentage terms, the reserved seats for STs make up for 22.38 percent of the total Assembly seats in the 5 States

STATEWISE: KEY POINTS

Madhya Pradesh

• The 230-member-strong Madhya Pradesh Assembly has the highest number of seats (47) reserved for the Scheduled Tribe
• In 2013, the BJP had won 31 seats and the Congress just 15. But in 2018, interestingly, the figures flipped identically with the Congress winning 31 seats and the BJP getting 15
• Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan unveiled 10-feet Ashtdhatu (eight metals) statue of Tantya ‘Mama’ besides a memorial, a park and a library dedicated to him
• Prime Minister Narendra Modi laid foundation stone of Rs 100-crore memorial of Gondwana queen Rani Durgawati
• PM declared birth anniversary of Bhagwan Birsa Munda on November 15 as Tribal Pride Day from Bhopal
• One of the most modern railway stations in the country named after Rani Kamlapati
• Implementation of PESA and MSP on 90 percent forest produce also showcased
• The State goes to poll on November 17

Rajasthan

• Known not to repeat the incumbent Government, the desert State has 25 seats of the total 200 Assembly seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes
• As the people voted the Vasundhara Raje-led BJP dispensation out of power, the Congress bagged 12 ST seats of the total 25 while on its way to return to power. The BJP could win only 9 ST seats
• PM Modi has espoused causes like the development and expansion of Bhil massacre site of Mangarh Dham. The tribals in the region hold sway over around 100 Assembly seats of Rajasthan, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh.
• The Ashok Gehlot-led Congress Government is pinning hopes on its promises like 200 days of employment in rural areas to the tribal communities.
• The Bharatiya Tribal Party is yet again queering the pitch for both the national parties
• The State goes to poll on November 23

Chhattisgarh

• The State with 90 Assembly seats saw the BJP that ruled the State for 15 long years getting battered in the 2018 Assembly polls as the voters handed the Congress a landslide win.
• The Congress won 68 of the 90 seats and in the process bagged 25 of the 29 Assembly seats reserved for the STs. The BJP could win just 2 ST seats. The Congress bagged the Dantewada ST seat in a by-election and its numbers now stand at 71 MLAs.
• Like his Madhya Pradesh counterpart, Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel is also showcasing the implementation of PESA in the State giving power to the gram sabhas for the benefit of tribal communities
• The Baghel government has also conducted mega events like the National Tribal Dance Festival or taken steps like construction of Ghotuls, the institution of sex education for children as also the place for unmarried men and women to mingle freely
• The State goes to poll in 2 phases on November 7 and November 17

Telangana

• Strongly entrenched in power since the State came into existence in 2014, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi, which has since been rechristened as Bharat Rashtra Samithi, is facing a strong challenge from both the BJP and Congress this time round
• Eyeing a strong performance in the southern State buoyed by its 2019 Lok Sabha performance when it won 4 seats, the BJP has made a strong tribal pitch with PM Modi recently announcing the setting up of a Rs 900-crore Central Tribal University named after two tribal Godesses Sammakka and Sarakka
• The 119–member Telangana Assembly has 12 seats reserved for the Scheduled Tribes with the erstwhile TRS and Congress sharing the honours equally winning 5 seats each last time
• Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao has sought to increase reservation for STs from 6% to 10% besides seeking to settle the vexed issue of 11.5 lakh acres of ‘Podu’ land. Podu is the practice of shifting cultivation on forest land by tribals
• The State goes to poll on November 30

Mizoram

• The tribal-dominated northeastern State has a 40-member Assembly. And of the 40 seats, 39 are reserved for Scheduled Tribes
• The Zoramthanga-led Mizo National Front had bagged 26 seats with a vote share of 37.8 per cent to emerge victorious in the 2018 polls. The Congress secured five seats while the BJP could win only one seat
• Part of the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA), the MNF and BJP are allies and they would hope a return to power
• Mizoram has been affected by the happenings in neigbouring Manipur and this could have an impact on some seats. In fact, despite being BJP’s ally, the MNF voted in favour of the Opposition-moved no confidence motion in Lok Sabha recently
• The State goes to poll on November 7

CAUSE OF CONCERN

• The BJP is wary of a repeat of Karnataka where it lost on all the 15 seats reserved for tribals despite winning 24 of the 27 ST seats in Gujarat just a few months before that and showcasing the election of Droupadi Murmu as the President of India
• Despite giving the tribal tag to the Hattis of Himachal Pradesh, fulfilling their demand since 1967, the BJP lost two of the four Assembly seats in the Hatti-dominated Sirmaur district. Even the two wins are attributed to the rebel factor
• The Congress is wary of Rajasthan’s history of not repeating Governments and also anti-incumbency

HOPEFUL

• The BJP is hopeful of a return to power in Rajasthan and retaining power in Madhya Pradesh
• The Congress is hopeful of extracting revenge of the humiliation in Madhya Pradesh by ousting the BJP again and coming to power in Telangana ousting the BRS
• The Congress is also hopeful of preventing a repeat of history in Rajasthan by retaining power