New Delhi/Jammu
After a gap of 10 years, Jammu and Kashmir will witness Assembly elections that will be held in three phases on September 18, September 25, and October 1 with counting and results on October 4. It will also be the first Assembly elections since the BJP-led Central government abrogated Article 370.
The last Assembly election was held in 2014 following which the PDP-BJP coalition government came into power but fell in June 2018 when the latter withdrew support to the then Chief Minister, Mehbooba Mufti.
The Election Commission announced the schedule on Friday alongwith that of Haryana that will have a single-phase poll on October 1 with counting of votes on October 4.
In Jammu and Kashmir, there are now a total of 90 Assembly constituencies, comprising 74 general seats, nine reserved for Scheduled Tribes (ST) for the first time, and seven reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC). Among the nine seats reserved for STs, three are reserved for tribal women. The Constitution of the erstwhile Jammu and Kashmir State did not provide for reservation of seats for the Scheduled Tribes in the Legislative Assembly. And of the 90 Assembly seats, 43 are part of Jammu province and 47 are of Kashmir Valley.
The electorate includes 87.09 lakh voters, with 44.46 lakh male voters and 42.62 lakh female voters.
In December last year, the Supreme Court while upholding the decision of abrogation of Article 370 had directed the Central government to conclude the election process in the Union Territory by September 30, 2024.
“The reservation of nine seats including six in Jammu and three in Kashmir Division for tribals (STs) in J-K Assembly is a step that will prove historic towards tribal development,” Dr Javaid Rahi, a noted tribal researcher and founder secretary of Tribal Research and Cultural Foundation, had said following the Delimitation Commission’s announcement.
The nine ST seats are Rajouri, Budhal, Thanamandi, Surankote Mendhar, Gulabgarh (all in Jammu), and Kangan (Ganderbal), Gurez (Bandipora) and Kokernag (Anantnag) all in Kashmir Valley.
The Delimitation exercise was carried out as per the Delimitation Act, 2002 and the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act of 2019 by a 3-member Delimitation Commission, headed by retired Justice Ranjana Prakash Desai. Former Chief Election Commissioner, Sushil Chandra, and the State Election Commissioner for Jammu and Kashmir, K.K. Sharma, were the other members.
In the recent Lok Sabha elections, of the five Parliamentary constituencies, the BJP and the National conference won two seats each with a jailed Independent MLA winning one. Notably, the BJP did not contest any seat in the Kashmir Valley and managed to retain both its seats in the Jammu province.
Ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP-led Union government had granted the Scheduled Tribe status to the Pahari community hoping to reap rich political dividends. However, a scrutiny of the Assembly segment-wise poll results revealed the gamble didn’t pay off on ground zero. By granting the Scheduled Tribe status to Paharis and others, the BJP was aiming to further consolidate its voter base across the Pir Panjal region. However, in the absence of their party candidate in the fray, the BJP could not assess the impact of the landmark decision. Now, as the election campaign picks up momentum, the BJP is expected to focus more on these nine ST seats to further improve its tally in the Assembly polls.
In the absence of any BJP candidate, Mian Altaf Ahmad, a tall Gujjar leader representing the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference emerged as a giant killer securing around 58 percent of the total valid votes polled.
According to the statistics shared by the Election Commission, Altaf Ahmad polled a total number of 300043 votes from the seven assembly segments of Rajouri and Poonch and 221793 from the 11 assembly segments of the South Kashmir Parliamentary constituency.
In contrast, Jammu and Kashmir APNI party candidate, Zaffar Iqbal Manhas, supported by the BJP, could garner only a little over 18 percent (142195 votes) of the total valid votes polled across the seven assembly segments of Rajouri and Poonch in the Anantnag-Rajouri Parliamentary constituency.
PDP Chief Mehbooba Mufti also failed to muster majority votes from the region despite running an emotional campaign. Mufti gathered a little over 17 percent valid votes from the seven Assembly segments of the twin border districts. She polled 88459 votes from Rajouri-Poonch and 151583 from the Kashmir valley.
Out of the 1816371 voters, as many as 7,29,830 voters were distributed across seven assembly segments of Rajouri and Poonch districts. However, the remaining 10,86, 541 voters were distributed across the eleven constituencies of three districts—Shopian, Kulgam, and Anantnag of South Kashmir.
Approximately 60 percent of 7,29,830 voters in Rajouri and Poonch districts belong to the Pahari community while the remaining 40 percent are Gujjar and Bakerwal community voters. During the entire poll campaign on the Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha seat, the BJP leaders openly sought votes for Manhas, a Pahari leader. Still, he was trounced.
The BJP faces a tough challenge on ground zero from both the National Conference and the Congress in the coming Assembly polls. The former alliance partners may not have decided to forge any pre-poll alliance but the duo emerged as the front runners to form the next government based on their performance in the recently held Lok Sabha polls.
According to the Election Commission data of Lok Sabha polls, the National Conference and the Congress had secured majority votes from at least 41 out of 90 Assembly segments in the recently concluded Lok Sabha polls in 2024.
The BJP, despite winning both the Lok Sabha seats of the Jammu region, fell short of at least 16 seats to reach the halfway mark of 45 in a 90-member legislature. The BJP polled majority votes from 29 Assembly segments of Jammu-Reasi and Udhampur-Doda Lok Sabha seats.
Like-minded parties — Jammu Kashmir APNI party and the People’s Conference – supported by the BJP in the Valley failed to impact the poll outcome with their marginal presence at the hustings. The People’s Democratic Party also performed poorly in securing majority votes across five Assembly segments in the valley.
Despite suffering a humiliating defeat at the hands of an independent candidate Abdul Rashid Sheikh from the Baramulla Lok Sabha seat, the National Conference polled majority votes on at least 27 Assembly segments across Kashmir Valley and seven Assembly segments falling in the twin border districts of Rajouri and Poonch. The Congress, on the other hand, polled majority votes in the seven assembly segments of the Jammu region.
Out of 18 Assembly segments falling under the Srinagar Parliamentary constituency, the National Conference established a clear lead from 16 Assembly segments barring two segments of the South Kashmir district of Pulwama from where PDP candidate Waheed Ur Rahman Para garnered majority votes.
